[meteorite-list] Greg Shanos- Inside the Cone of Uncertainty

[John Lutzon]

  Wrong Greg, Same feelings.
J.

> On 10/17/2024 8:00 PM EDT John Lutzon via Meteorite-list <meteorite-list at meteoritecentral.com> wrote:
> 
>  
> Beautiful, Kevin,
> 
>   Florida for 50+ yrs. 
> Good news for some. Horror for many. Great rundown and outcome.
> Well, so happens, Happy birthday to my wife Eva and Greg tomorrow. I wonder if Greg's back breaking, self installed drainage system paid off?
>    Thank you, Kevin, Best to all.
> John 
> 
> > On 10/17/2024 4:37 PM EDT Kevin Kichinka via Meteorite-list <meteorite-list at meteoritecentral.com> wrote:
> > 
> >  
> > Team Meteorite
> > 
> > Life surprises us with circumstances beyond our control. A flat tire
> > or worms drilling into the ripe tomatoes is enough to cause many
> > people to scream, "why me?"
> > 
> > One enters a brave new world of despair when the BREAKING NEWS on TV
> > warns of the approach of a monster hurricane and the Cone of
> > Uncertainty is shown centered over your beach house, with a possible
> > tour inside of the eye of a Cat 5 hurricane included free of charge.
> > 
> > It could be worse. What if this update arrived just after the
> > electricity came back on while the storm surge of the last hurricane
> > was still thumping and slapping against your front door?
> > 
> > Greg Shanos, our go-to guy for everything regarding organic molecules
> > in carbonaceous chondrites had just endured a near miss from Hurricane
> > Helene, but just like that, it was game on again, and he was going to
> > get one roll of the dice to possibly save his life.
> > 
> > Greg is a Doctor of Pharmacy and has a life-long love for the Florida
> > barrier island of Longboat Key, an offshore American tropical
> > paradise. The island is a skinny string of seven square kilometers of
> > sand and is one meter above sea level.
> > 
> > One.
> > 
> > According to WIKI, Longboat Key was first scouted by Spaniard Juan de
> > Añasco around 1530. When his party reached land the indigenous
> > residents fled, leaving their Longboat in a bayou. For the next three
> > centuries only fishermen and pirates wiggled their toes in the sand.
> > 
> > A hurricane scraped Longboat Key down to ground seashells in 1848, and
> > the damage was such that there is no more recorded history until 1880.
> > Another hurricane in 1921 airmailed a US Post Office to a new address.
> > Incredibly, those are the only recorded storms to have touched this
> > hyper-vulnerable isle.
> > 
> > There is a related legend. The Seminoles claimed that the Tocobaga
> > tribe had put a spirit charm reaching from Tampa Bay south to what is
> > now Englewood that warded off "heavy winds". Located in between,
> > Longboat Key has prosperously developed un-flustered for the last one
> > hundred years, surrounded by the smooth, green waters of the Gulf of
> > Mexico .
> > 
> > Not that danger didn't lurk nearby with regularity. In the last 200
> > years the Florida mainland has had around 500 hurricanes passing left,
> > right and center.
> > 
> > On September 23, 2024 Helene formed from a region of scattered
> > thunderstorms in the Carib Sea east of Costa Rica. It blew by Longboat
> > Key as a Cat 3 a few days later. Greg sent me this email of his first
> > encounter with a hurricane.
> > 
> > "We almost lost our house. The water in the canal rose 7 feet, but
> > fortunately it receded without any damage. The street in front of the
> > house was flooded with water from Sarasota Bay. We lost electricity
> > for 17 hours. The food was still semi-frozen and edible. Water has
> > already been turned back on. I just had the internet restored. This
> > was just a tropical storm here; the winds were not bad, and we only
> > had 2 inches of rain in two days.  It was the STORM SURGE that caused
> > all the devastation.  Fortunately, our house was spared.
> > Unfortunately, this was not the case for many others. I feel for
> > everyone who had their house flooded from the storm. I see furniture,
> > mattresses, refrigerators, washing machines etc in the front yards of
> > many homes for pickup, especially on St Armands and Lido keys. It
> > makes me wonder why I was spared and not them?  Now I know what is
> > meant by survivors' guilt."
> > 
> > Helene made landfall in Perry, a coastal town in Florida's Big Bend,
> > and continued north-east to North Carolina, leaving behind the rubble
> > of obliterated American dreams and 227 deaths.
> > 
> > I have enjoyed a friendship with Greg for more than twenty-five years.
> > We share our interests in meteorites and both of us have traveled to
> > multiple solar eclipses, but now we began to write to each other as
> > another storm  exploded in the Gulf. 'Milton' was a milktoast name for
> > a killer with evil intent.
> > 
> > For years I have been blown around by all classes of these storms and
> > thought Greg might appreciate some advice. My experiences began with
> > three years of typhoons, the Pacific Ocean name for hurricanes, while
> > renting a tin-roofed, plywood house in the barrio of Santo Domingo in
> > south-east Luzon in the Philippines during the 1970's as a US Peace
> > Corp Volunteer.  No matter how savage the winds I never lost
> > electricity then, because there was none. Neither was there immediate
> > contact with the world beyond the shadow of nearby Mayon Volcano other
> > than telegrams hand-delivered from Manila. When the sideways rain
> > began to fall and the winds blew hard it was like standing in a car
> > wash. There was no time to run and no place to hide. You practiced
> > what they now call 'hunkering down'.
> > 
> > From 1979 to 2005 I lived part time in Fort Myers, Florida, growing
> > weary of the seasonal storm scares as the local news began earnestly
> > hysterical eyeball-rewarded coverage with every dark cloud coming off
> > of Africa.
> > 
> > In 2004, Charlie's local 105mph/170km/hr winds arrived at my door when
> > it unexpectedly made a ninety degree right turn in the Gulf cutting
> > North Captiva island in half, and delivering a body blow to Fort
> > Myers. It did structural but not fatal damage to my house, although my
> > long-nurtured tropical forest was leveled and drowned.
> > 
> > The good news for me was that Meteorite Motorheads Blaine and Blake
> > Reed happened to be driving back to Colorado from Miami after
> > purchasing a Jaguar, not a cat, but a 1996 XJS with a Chevy engine and
> > transmission, and they stopped with the vehicle in tow and kindly
> > helped me reinstall a long wooden fence.
> > 
> > The bad news was that two best buddies, Bill and Glenn, lost their
> > homes and their businesses 20 miles away during Punta Gorda's 175
> > mp/280 km/hr climate hallucination. Bill's wife was a bank manager and
> > the storm 'removed' the building to parts unknown. An ATM powered by a
> > generator hooked to a satellite dish provided customer service.  When
> > I brought them food, fuel, ice and beer the next day, driving past
> > hundreds of military and electric utility vehicles, I suffered an old
> > timer's moment that made my brain puke as I couldn't locate their
> > street among the flattened landscape, homes crushed leaving only a
> > concrete foundation, fat ancient oak trees splintered in half and
> > metal power poles twisted into pseudo war debris. When I finally found
> > my way I was invited to a block party of neighbors grilling the last
> > Rib Eyes rescued from their non-functioning freezers. The luxury of
> > electricity was at least a month away. Homes without air conditioning
> > in the 90F degrees/90 % humidity of Florida August become efficient
> > mold farms inside.
> > 
> > On October 5, I sent Greg an email with a map that showed Hurricane
> > Milton making landfall just north of Longboat Key as a Cat 3 and
> > running up Tampa Bay. I didn't mention that this was pretty much a
> > worse case scenario for him. I titled the email  "Not another one". He
> > calmly replied:
> > 
> > "Kevin:
> > Yes, headed NNE, expected to hit St Petersburg, Tampa and North of
> > those cities. - Greg"
> > 
> > I didn't know if Greg understood that the storm surge and the worst
> > winds would arrive from south-west of the landfall. I looked at the
> > map again and knew that an island 1m above sea level covered by eight
> > to ten feet of storm surge would appear from rescue helicopters like a
> > lot of roofs in a weird place for people to sit.
> > 
> > If the water was a little higher nothing would appear at all.
> > 
> > And the storm only needed a slight wobble to the east to go directly
> > over Longboat Key. Someone could die....
> > 
> > I wrote back to Greg, this one entitled  "Run from the Water". I
> > didn't want to be alarming and use the harsh 'evacuation' word which
> > suggests that one is abandoning everything left behind.
> > 
> > For these days of drama I was at home in my mountaintop sanctuary in
> > western Costa Rica watching CNN on my sat dish. The Mayor of Tampa is
> > warning, "If you do not evacuate, you will die." Miami's most
> > respected weatherman, who had covered all of the storms hitting
> > Florida since the 1980's was next, "Hurricane Hunter planes are
> > reporting the fastest drop and lowest air pressure ever measured for a
> > Gulf Hurricane. The death and devastation this storm will cause...."
> > he suddenly stopped talking.
> > 
> > The old man is crying. He knows what's next.
> > 
> > Time was of the essence. Greg had to throw the dice for the second
> > time in two weeks. One represents "Do I Stay" and the other "Do I Go".
> > Whatever didn't happen during the last one hundred years wouldn't
> > matter if after they leave his hand and rattle around the table they
> > come to rest as rock 'n roll snake eyes.
> > 
> > Back on CNN radar displays five supercell tornadoes on the ground in
> > central Florida, a size previously unknown here, dropped from the
> > first rain band which has already reached the Atlantic Ocean. Three
> > tornadoes are near Fort Myers. One is running over Arcadia, Florida,
> > central Florida cow country where my buddy Bill moved after Charlie
> > upended his life in 2004, a last resort shelter as there were no
> > habitable structures left in Punta Gorda to rent or purchase. I'm
> > watching a real life horror movie in real time.
> > 
> > A CNN weatherman shows the predictive American and European weather
> > agency spaghetti models converging on the meatball that is Tampa.
> > 
> > I've now seen enough, of enough stuff I'd never seen before.
> > 
> > I wrote to Greg:
> > "It would be a good plan to reserve a 3rd floor hotel room or higher
> > on the east side of a building in Sarasota (or wherever) the day
> > before the storm hits your island. If Milton is slow moving and runs
> > right over your house you would regret still being there. You can
> > always cancel the room.... or enjoy a 2nd honeymoon there with the
> > wife. Bring your meteorites. -  K"
> > 
> > I suspect that for Greg, Longboat Key and his home have bonded into a
> > relationship meant to last until death do we part. And now he must not
> > wait another moment and must choose to run away from a high
> > probability watery demise when he'll be swimming with the fishies.
> > 
> > I was worried. I didn't know if he would leave.
> > 
> > Then I had an email....it was 11:20am on October 7, 2024.
> > 
> > "Kevin:
> > Evacuating now. Currently headed further north toward Tampa. - Greg"
> > 
> > I worried some more. Why was he going north to Tampa?  All roads would
> > be frozen in orderly gridlock with hundreds of thousands of
> > semi-terrified and fully-terrified people driving basically nowhere on
> > the Interstate cum parking lot, none with any sense of which direction
> > to go.
> > 
> > At 6:12pm another email.
> > 
> > "Kevin:
> > Denise and I are at my father-in-law's place. He lives on the 10th
> > floor of Bay Village independent living facility in Sarasota.  We are
> > safe; however, I am really worried about the house. I secured
> > everything the best I could. I sincerely hope we do not get any
> > flooding or wind damage.  My polyurethane fence came down during
> > Helene, it will go down again. If this is the only damage- I will be
> > very happy. - Greg"
> > 
> > Breath out. Breath in. Breath deep.
> > 
> > The storm is making landfall. If you are on the tenth floor of the Bay
> > Village facility you can feel it gently swaying.
> > 
> > Greg writes:
> > Wed, Oct 9, 1:35 PM
> > "Kevin:
> > Too close for comfort. Hoping for the best. Will lose electricity and
> > internet soon. This will be my last email until the storm is over.
> > Wish me luck.
> > Greg"
> > 
> > One recognizes such messages as the last one sent before the plane crashes.
> > 
> > The next day the Sun rose between the mountains west of San Jose,
> > creating flashes of illumination reflecting off of the blades of the
> > slow winding windmills on the highest ridges. It's 5:30am and the sky
> > is turquoise soon to brighten to a rich celestial blue, purified by my
> > higher altitude. I'm waiting with phone in hand for first contact from
> > Greg now that the storm has passed. How different our worlds were at
> > this moment.
> > 
> > Twenty-six hours after their FB website went down the Longboat Key
> > government page is back up. I see that the police and firemen had been
> > evacuated from the island and had now returned to duty.
> > 
> > Then I read the best possible news. I titled this next email, 'Luck of
> > the Irish'.
> > 
> > (OK, I don't believe that Greg is Irish, although thankfully we all
> > are one day of the year.)
> > 
> > On Thursday, October 10, 2024 at 03:50:33 PM EDT I wrote:
> > 
> > SUMMARY - Longboat Key experienced minimal damage from Hurricane
> > Milton with winds up to 110 mph and very little storm surge. While
> > some roofs and fences sustained damage, the island's basic
> > infrastructure remains intact. The South access via Ringling Causeway
> > is closed due to damage, and the only entry point will be through the
> > North access once cleared. Currently, there is no power, water, or
> > wastewater services, but crews are working hard to restore them. Thank
> > you for your continued patience as our community recovers.
> > 
> > I'M SO HAPPY FOR YOU. - K
> > 
> > Kevin:
> > "Thank you. Have not been home yet. I am using a hotspot. Battery
> > draining. You put my mind at ease. - Greg"
> > 
> > The next day Greg, his wife Denise and the cat Pumpkin went home. As
> > he turned onto his street and approached his home, Greg had to be
> > experiencing one of the highest levels of stress in his life. He
> > wrote:
> > 
> > "Kevin:
> > "On Friday October 11th we received a text stating that it was safe
> > for residents to return to LBK.  We arrived home at 8:30am and the
> > only damage was the fence! No water ever entered the house thanks to
> > the reverse storm surge.  We even had electricity back!  Turned on the
> > air conditioner. However, we did not have any water or internet. We
> > went back to Bay Village, packed up our stuff including my meteorites
> > and brought the cat back home. Pumpkin and I were pleased to be back
> > home safe and sound.
> > 
> > The reverse storm surge saved the day. Sarasota was in the eye of a
> > Category 3 hurricane with 110 mph/winds.  Landfall occurred at Siesta
> > Key first, which is only one island away!  Surprisingly, I had very
> > little damage. My polyurethane fence went down again. Absolutely no
> > flooding! That was my biggest concern.
> > We have electricity since we have below ground wires. Water was turned
> > on today then turned off since there was very little pressure.
> > Hopefully Sunday or Monday we will have water. I hate going to bed
> > without a shower. Still no internet. I am using a hotspot on my phone
> > to send you this email. Overall, very fortunate I still have a house.
> > We were very very fortunate to be in the eye! - Greg"
> > 
> > Siesta Key is another in a line of several barrier islands and can be
> > seen to the south from Longboat Key. The storm wobbled 60 miles/100km
> > south of the predicted landfall, the spaghetti completely missing the
> > meatball, though it was still powerful enough to strip the roof off of
> > the Tampa Bay Rays baseball stadium. (They deserve a new stadium
> > anyway).
> > 
> > 'Reverse storm surge' means that the wind over the island was coming
> > from the mainland, pushing the water out to sea, not on to shore. This
> > indicates that when the storm lost traction for a Tampa landfall, it
> > followed an arc that, had it lost further momentum, could have made a
> > direct hit on Longboat Key.
> > 
> > My last email from Greg:
> > " It is a miracle that no significant damage occurred on the occasion
> > of having two hurricanes so close without any damage of note.  My
> > birthday is on October 18th- this is the greatest birthday present,
> > being in the eye of a category 3 hurricane with 110 mph winds and
> > living to talk about it and having a house that was left intact!"
> > 
> > Greg, can I rub your head for good luck?
> > 
> > And what about the meteorite collection? Greg writes:
> > "Packed all the stones. Left behind the irons since they were double
> > bagged in Hoppe's # 9 gun oil.  They were placed on a high shelf at
> > least a meter high."
> > 
> > ******************************************************
> > Thanks to everyone for reading this account. If you are contemplating
> > a move to a zone with hurricanes or tsunamis I hope you consider
> > putting a little altitude between yourself and the water. If you need
> > convincing, take a look at the two videos of the devastation of Ft
> > Myers Beach, Florida two years ago. For many years that was my party
> > beach with many memories of good times. With a past girlfriend we
> > contemplated buying a home there, but the island traffic during
> > tourist season dissuaded us.
> > 
> > Although I sit here so far away, I still suffer a Pavlovian reaction,
> > some negative sense of doom when the weather news from the United
> > States focuses on another blob of clouds leaving Africa. This is why I
> > left Florida for calmer winds, feeling safer around earthquakes,
> > landslides and narco-traffickers.
> > 
> > In this instance, with the internet and CNN available and Greg being
> > the Man-in-the-Middle, I felt close to events that seemed so near and
> > familiar and horrible. I wrote this for Greg as a birthday gift and a
> > dramatic chronology that led to a remarkable conclusion. It is a
> > memoir for this true gentleman and his family.
> > 
> > Greg is a long time contributor to x-Meteorite Magazine, the Meteorite
> > List and so many other worthy causes. I hope that this off-topic story
> > will be welcomed by the worldwide audience of the Meteorite List.
> > 
> > Here are three videos and one real estate ad. The first two are so
> > extreme with the highest winds at landfall and storm surge to the
> > second floor that I consider it 'Hurricane porn.'
> > 
> > The first nine minutes is boat destruction, the damage to the town of
> > FtMyers Beach begins at minute 9, don't miss it.
> > https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3Cw9ae_E7bo#ddg-play
> > 
> > Don't know what storm surge can do to a barrier island? Ft Myers
> > Beach, Florida two years ago. Watch the water rise and rise and
> > rise......
> > https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=al8yTiCVfro
> > 
> > Video of Longboat Key after Helene. Mild with little damage.
> > https://www.heraldtribune.com/videos/news/2024/09/28/aerial-view-of-longboat-key-after-hurricane-helene/75427926007/
> > 
> > Marked down $695,000/32% a few days after Helene on Longboat Key. You
> > gotta know when to hold, you gotta know when to fold.
> > https://www.zillow.com/homedetails/5930-Emerald-Harbor-Dr-Longboat-Key-FL-34228/45794996_zpid/
> > 
> > Kevin Kichinka ........ MARSROX at gmail.com
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