[meteorite-list] Greg Shanos- Inside the Cone of Uncertainty

[John Lutzon]

   Beautiful, Kevin,

  Florida for 50+ yrs. 
Good news for some. Horror for many. Great rundown and outcome.
Well, so happens, Happy birthday to my wife Eva and Greg tomorrow. I wonder if Greg's back breaking, self installed drainage system paid off?
   Thank you, Kevin, Best to all.
John 

> On 10/17/2024 4:37 PM EDT Kevin Kichinka via Meteorite-list <meteorite-list at meteoritecentral.com> wrote:
> 
>  
> Team Meteorite
> 
> Life surprises us with circumstances beyond our control. A flat tire
> or worms drilling into the ripe tomatoes is enough to cause many
> people to scream, "why me?"
> 
> One enters a brave new world of despair when the BREAKING NEWS on TV
> warns of the approach of a monster hurricane and the Cone of
> Uncertainty is shown centered over your beach house, with a possible
> tour inside of the eye of a Cat 5 hurricane included free of charge.
> 
> It could be worse. What if this update arrived just after the
> electricity came back on while the storm surge of the last hurricane
> was still thumping and slapping against your front door?
> 
> Greg Shanos, our go-to guy for everything regarding organic molecules
> in carbonaceous chondrites had just endured a near miss from Hurricane
> Helene, but just like that, it was game on again, and he was going to
> get one roll of the dice to possibly save his life.
> 
> Greg is a Doctor of Pharmacy and has a life-long love for the Florida
> barrier island of Longboat Key, an offshore American tropical
> paradise. The island is a skinny string of seven square kilometers of
> sand and is one meter above sea level.
> 
> One.
> 
> According to WIKI, Longboat Key was first scouted by Spaniard Juan de
> Añasco around 1530. When his party reached land the indigenous
> residents fled, leaving their Longboat in a bayou. For the next three
> centuries only fishermen and pirates wiggled their toes in the sand.
> 
> A hurricane scraped Longboat Key down to ground seashells in 1848, and
> the damage was such that there is no more recorded history until 1880.
> Another hurricane in 1921 airmailed a US Post Office to a new address.
> Incredibly, those are the only recorded storms to have touched this
> hyper-vulnerable isle.
> 
> There is a related legend. The Seminoles claimed that the Tocobaga
> tribe had put a spirit charm reaching from Tampa Bay south to what is
> now Englewood that warded off "heavy winds". Located in between,
> Longboat Key has prosperously developed un-flustered for the last one
> hundred years, surrounded by the smooth, green waters of the Gulf of
> Mexico .
> 
> Not that danger didn't lurk nearby with regularity. In the last 200
> years the Florida mainland has had around 500 hurricanes passing left,
> right and center.
> 
> On September 23, 2024 Helene formed from a region of scattered
> thunderstorms in the Carib Sea east of Costa Rica. It blew by Longboat
> Key as a Cat 3 a few days later. Greg sent me this email of his first
> encounter with a hurricane.
> 
> "We almost lost our house. The water in the canal rose 7 feet, but
> fortunately it receded without any damage. The street in front of the
> house was flooded with water from Sarasota Bay. We lost electricity
> for 17 hours. The food was still semi-frozen and edible. Water has
> already been turned back on. I just had the internet restored. This
> was just a tropical storm here; the winds were not bad, and we only
> had 2 inches of rain in two days.  It was the STORM SURGE that caused
> all the devastation.  Fortunately, our house was spared.
> Unfortunately, this was not the case for many others. I feel for
> everyone who had their house flooded from the storm. I see furniture,
> mattresses, refrigerators, washing machines etc in the front yards of
> many homes for pickup, especially on St Armands and Lido keys. It
> makes me wonder why I was spared and not them?  Now I know what is
> meant by survivors' guilt."
> 
> Helene made landfall in Perry, a coastal town in Florida's Big Bend,
> and continued north-east to North Carolina, leaving behind the rubble
> of obliterated American dreams and 227 deaths.
> 
> I have enjoyed a friendship with Greg for more than twenty-five years.
> We share our interests in meteorites and both of us have traveled to
> multiple solar eclipses, but now we began to write to each other as
> another storm  exploded in the Gulf. 'Milton' was a milktoast name for
> a killer with evil intent.
> 
> For years I have been blown around by all classes of these storms and
> thought Greg might appreciate some advice. My experiences began with
> three years of typhoons, the Pacific Ocean name for hurricanes, while
> renting a tin-roofed, plywood house in the barrio of Santo Domingo in
> south-east Luzon in the Philippines during the 1970's as a US Peace
> Corp Volunteer.  No matter how savage the winds I never lost
> electricity then, because there was none. Neither was there immediate
> contact with the world beyond the shadow of nearby Mayon Volcano other
> than telegrams hand-delivered from Manila. When the sideways rain
> began to fall and the winds blew hard it was like standing in a car
> wash. There was no time to run and no place to hide. You practiced
> what they now call 'hunkering down'.
> 
> From 1979 to 2005 I lived part time in Fort Myers, Florida, growing
> weary of the seasonal storm scares as the local news began earnestly
> hysterical eyeball-rewarded coverage with every dark cloud coming off
> of Africa.
> 
> In 2004, Charlie's local 105mph/170km/hr winds arrived at my door when
> it unexpectedly made a ninety degree right turn in the Gulf cutting
> North Captiva island in half, and delivering a body blow to Fort
> Myers. It did structural but not fatal damage to my house, although my
> long-nurtured tropical forest was leveled and drowned.
> 
> The good news for me was that Meteorite Motorheads Blaine and Blake
> Reed happened to be driving back to Colorado from Miami after
> purchasing a Jaguar, not a cat, but a 1996 XJS with a Chevy engine and
> transmission, and they stopped with the vehicle in tow and kindly
> helped me reinstall a long wooden fence.
> 
> The bad news was that two best buddies, Bill and Glenn, lost their
> homes and their businesses 20 miles away during Punta Gorda's 175
> mp/280 km/hr climate hallucination. Bill's wife was a bank manager and
> the storm 'removed' the building to parts unknown. An ATM powered by a
> generator hooked to a satellite dish provided customer service.  When
> I brought them food, fuel, ice and beer the next day, driving past
> hundreds of military and electric utility vehicles, I suffered an old
> timer's moment that made my brain puke as I couldn't locate their
> street among the flattened landscape, homes crushed leaving only a
> concrete foundation, fat ancient oak trees splintered in half and
> metal power poles twisted into pseudo war debris. When I finally found
> my way I was invited to a block party of neighbors grilling the last
> Rib Eyes rescued from their non-functioning freezers. The luxury of
> electricity was at least a month away. Homes without air conditioning
> in the 90F degrees/90 % humidity of Florida August become efficient
> mold farms inside.
> 
> On October 5, I sent Greg an email with a map that showed Hurricane
> Milton making landfall just north of Longboat Key as a Cat 3 and
> running up Tampa Bay. I didn't mention that this was pretty much a
> worse case scenario for him. I titled the email  "Not another one". He
> calmly replied:
> 
> "Kevin:
> Yes, headed NNE, expected to hit St Petersburg, Tampa and North of
> those cities. - Greg"
> 
> I didn't know if Greg understood that the storm surge and the worst
> winds would arrive from south-west of the landfall. I looked at the
> map again and knew that an island 1m above sea level covered by eight
> to ten feet of storm surge would appear from rescue helicopters like a
> lot of roofs in a weird place for people to sit.
> 
> If the water was a little higher nothing would appear at all.
> 
> And the storm only needed a slight wobble to the east to go directly
> over Longboat Key. Someone could die....
> 
> I wrote back to Greg, this one entitled  "Run from the Water". I
> didn't want to be alarming and use the harsh 'evacuation' word which
> suggests that one is abandoning everything left behind.
> 
> For these days of drama I was at home in my mountaintop sanctuary in
> western Costa Rica watching CNN on my sat dish. The Mayor of Tampa is
> warning, "If you do not evacuate, you will die." Miami's most
> respected weatherman, who had covered all of the storms hitting
> Florida since the 1980's was next, "Hurricane Hunter planes are
> reporting the fastest drop and lowest air pressure ever measured for a
> Gulf Hurricane. The death and devastation this storm will cause...."
> he suddenly stopped talking.
> 
> The old man is crying. He knows what's next.
> 
> Time was of the essence. Greg had to throw the dice for the second
> time in two weeks. One represents "Do I Stay" and the other "Do I Go".
> Whatever didn't happen during the last one hundred years wouldn't
> matter if after they leave his hand and rattle around the table they
> come to rest as rock 'n roll snake eyes.
> 
> Back on CNN radar displays five supercell tornadoes on the ground in
> central Florida, a size previously unknown here, dropped from the
> first rain band which has already reached the Atlantic Ocean. Three
> tornadoes are near Fort Myers. One is running over Arcadia, Florida,
> central Florida cow country where my buddy Bill moved after Charlie
> upended his life in 2004, a last resort shelter as there were no
> habitable structures left in Punta Gorda to rent or purchase. I'm
> watching a real life horror movie in real time.
> 
> A CNN weatherman shows the predictive American and European weather
> agency spaghetti models converging on the meatball that is Tampa.
> 
> I've now seen enough, of enough stuff I'd never seen before.
> 
> I wrote to Greg:
> "It would be a good plan to reserve a 3rd floor hotel room or higher
> on the east side of a building in Sarasota (or wherever) the day
> before the storm hits your island. If Milton is slow moving and runs
> right over your house you would regret still being there. You can
> always cancel the room.... or enjoy a 2nd honeymoon there with the
> wife. Bring your meteorites. -  K"
> 
> I suspect that for Greg, Longboat Key and his home have bonded into a
> relationship meant to last until death do we part. And now he must not
> wait another moment and must choose to run away from a high
> probability watery demise when he'll be swimming with the fishies.
> 
> I was worried. I didn't know if he would leave.
> 
> Then I had an email....it was 11:20am on October 7, 2024.
> 
> "Kevin:
> Evacuating now. Currently headed further north toward Tampa. - Greg"
> 
> I worried some more. Why was he going north to Tampa?  All roads would
> be frozen in orderly gridlock with hundreds of thousands of
> semi-terrified and fully-terrified people driving basically nowhere on
> the Interstate cum parking lot, none with any sense of which direction
> to go.
> 
> At 6:12pm another email.
> 
> "Kevin:
> Denise and I are at my father-in-law's place. He lives on the 10th
> floor of Bay Village independent living facility in Sarasota.  We are
> safe; however, I am really worried about the house. I secured
> everything the best I could. I sincerely hope we do not get any
> flooding or wind damage.  My polyurethane fence came down during
> Helene, it will go down again. If this is the only damage- I will be
> very happy. - Greg"
> 
> Breath out. Breath in. Breath deep.
> 
> The storm is making landfall. If you are on the tenth floor of the Bay
> Village facility you can feel it gently swaying.
> 
> Greg writes:
> Wed, Oct 9, 1:35 PM
> "Kevin:
> Too close for comfort. Hoping for the best. Will lose electricity and
> internet soon. This will be my last email until the storm is over.
> Wish me luck.
> Greg"
> 
> One recognizes such messages as the last one sent before the plane crashes.
> 
> The next day the Sun rose between the mountains west of San Jose,
> creating flashes of illumination reflecting off of the blades of the
> slow winding windmills on the highest ridges. It's 5:30am and the sky
> is turquoise soon to brighten to a rich celestial blue, purified by my
> higher altitude. I'm waiting with phone in hand for first contact from
> Greg now that the storm has passed. How different our worlds were at
> this moment.
> 
> Twenty-six hours after their FB website went down the Longboat Key
> government page is back up. I see that the police and firemen had been
> evacuated from the island and had now returned to duty.
> 
> Then I read the best possible news. I titled this next email, 'Luck of
> the Irish'.
> 
> (OK, I don't believe that Greg is Irish, although thankfully we all
> are one day of the year.)
> 
> On Thursday, October 10, 2024 at 03:50:33 PM EDT I wrote:
> 
> SUMMARY - Longboat Key experienced minimal damage from Hurricane
> Milton with winds up to 110 mph and very little storm surge. While
> some roofs and fences sustained damage, the island's basic
> infrastructure remains intact. The South access via Ringling Causeway
> is closed due to damage, and the only entry point will be through the
> North access once cleared. Currently, there is no power, water, or
> wastewater services, but crews are working hard to restore them. Thank
> you for your continued patience as our community recovers.
> 
> I'M SO HAPPY FOR YOU. - K
> 
> Kevin:
> "Thank you. Have not been home yet. I am using a hotspot. Battery
> draining. You put my mind at ease. - Greg"
> 
> The next day Greg, his wife Denise and the cat Pumpkin went home. As
> he turned onto his street and approached his home, Greg had to be
> experiencing one of the highest levels of stress in his life. He
> wrote:
> 
> "Kevin:
> "On Friday October 11th we received a text stating that it was safe
> for residents to return to LBK.  We arrived home at 8:30am and the
> only damage was the fence! No water ever entered the house thanks to
> the reverse storm surge.  We even had electricity back!  Turned on the
> air conditioner. However, we did not have any water or internet. We
> went back to Bay Village, packed up our stuff including my meteorites
> and brought the cat back home. Pumpkin and I were pleased to be back
> home safe and sound.
> 
> The reverse storm surge saved the day. Sarasota was in the eye of a
> Category 3 hurricane with 110 mph/winds.  Landfall occurred at Siesta
> Key first, which is only one island away!  Surprisingly, I had very
> little damage. My polyurethane fence went down again. Absolutely no
> flooding! That was my biggest concern.
> We have electricity since we have below ground wires. Water was turned
> on today then turned off since there was very little pressure.
> Hopefully Sunday or Monday we will have water. I hate going to bed
> without a shower. Still no internet. I am using a hotspot on my phone
> to send you this email. Overall, very fortunate I still have a house.
> We were very very fortunate to be in the eye! - Greg"
> 
> Siesta Key is another in a line of several barrier islands and can be
> seen to the south from Longboat Key. The storm wobbled 60 miles/100km
> south of the predicted landfall, the spaghetti completely missing the
> meatball, though it was still powerful enough to strip the roof off of
> the Tampa Bay Rays baseball stadium. (They deserve a new stadium
> anyway).
> 
> 'Reverse storm surge' means that the wind over the island was coming
> from the mainland, pushing the water out to sea, not on to shore. This
> indicates that when the storm lost traction for a Tampa landfall, it
> followed an arc that, had it lost further momentum, could have made a
> direct hit on Longboat Key.
> 
> My last email from Greg:
> " It is a miracle that no significant damage occurred on the occasion
> of having two hurricanes so close without any damage of note.  My
> birthday is on October 18th- this is the greatest birthday present,
> being in the eye of a category 3 hurricane with 110 mph winds and
> living to talk about it and having a house that was left intact!"
> 
> Greg, can I rub your head for good luck?
> 
> And what about the meteorite collection? Greg writes:
> "Packed all the stones. Left behind the irons since they were double
> bagged in Hoppe's # 9 gun oil.  They were placed on a high shelf at
> least a meter high."
> 
> ******************************************************
> Thanks to everyone for reading this account. If you are contemplating
> a move to a zone with hurricanes or tsunamis I hope you consider
> putting a little altitude between yourself and the water. If you need
> convincing, take a look at the two videos of the devastation of Ft
> Myers Beach, Florida two years ago. For many years that was my party
> beach with many memories of good times. With a past girlfriend we
> contemplated buying a home there, but the island traffic during
> tourist season dissuaded us.
> 
> Although I sit here so far away, I still suffer a Pavlovian reaction,
> some negative sense of doom when the weather news from the United
> States focuses on another blob of clouds leaving Africa. This is why I
> left Florida for calmer winds, feeling safer around earthquakes,
> landslides and narco-traffickers.
> 
> In this instance, with the internet and CNN available and Greg being
> the Man-in-the-Middle, I felt close to events that seemed so near and
> familiar and horrible. I wrote this for Greg as a birthday gift and a
> dramatic chronology that led to a remarkable conclusion. It is a
> memoir for this true gentleman and his family.
> 
> Greg is a long time contributor to x-Meteorite Magazine, the Meteorite
> List and so many other worthy causes. I hope that this off-topic story
> will be welcomed by the worldwide audience of the Meteorite List.
> 
> Here are three videos and one real estate ad. The first two are so
> extreme with the highest winds at landfall and storm surge to the
> second floor that I consider it 'Hurricane porn.'
> 
> The first nine minutes is boat destruction, the damage to the town of
> FtMyers Beach begins at minute 9, don't miss it.
> https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3Cw9ae_E7bo#ddg-play
> 
> Don't know what storm surge can do to a barrier island? Ft Myers
> Beach, Florida two years ago. Watch the water rise and rise and
> rise......
> https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=al8yTiCVfro
> 
> Video of Longboat Key after Helene. Mild with little damage.
> https://www.heraldtribune.com/videos/news/2024/09/28/aerial-view-of-longboat-key-after-hurricane-helene/75427926007/
> 
> Marked down $695,000/32% a few days after Helene on Longboat Key. You
> gotta know when to hold, you gotta know when to fold.
> https://www.zillow.com/homedetails/5930-Emerald-Harbor-Dr-Longboat-Key-FL-34228/45794996_zpid/
> 
> Kevin Kichinka ........ MARSROX at gmail.com
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