AW: [meteorite-list] Re: 13.5 kg lunar

[Michael Fowler]

> On Sat, 14 May 2005 17:03:53 -0700, "Adam Hupe" <raremeteorites at 
> comcast.net> wrote:
>
> >That's ridiculous, Lunar material brought back from the moon would 
> baseline
> >at more than $5,000.00 a gram. Anything less is not feasible because 
> the
> >costs are tremendous and have already been calculated.
>
> Adam

One should be very careful about making dogmatic statements about what 
will never be technically or financially possible in the future!  Quite 
possibly 100 years in the future, the cost of a package to or form the 
moon may be little more in comparison to our income then, than the cost 
of getting one banana from Ecuador to the USA was in comparison to the 
income of Americans 150 years ago.  I've observed in my lifetime that 
the optimists have always been more right than the pessimists!
>

> Oh, maybe in the near future (I just used the 20 year figure because 
> that is what the original
> poster used) but I refuse to believe that, for an established lunar 
> mining colony launching material
> from the surface of the moon under the Moon's 1/6th g using lunar 
> construction materials and lunar
> fuel, the price will always be in the thousands of dollars per gram 
> range.  I'm not talking about a
> simple sample return mission, here.
>
> Darren

Read Heinleins " The Moon is a Harsh Mistress"  a classic SF story in 
which a rail gun catapult plays a crucial part.

Certainly, if we have a lunar colony and there is enough commerce to 
justify such a rail gun, the cost of transport from the moon to earth 
will be reduced by more than a factor of 1000.  Even before then, 
colonists, astronauts, scientists, or tourists will have a personal 
allowance of one or two kilos for personal effects.  Who's to say that 
they won't  choose to leave behind their underwear, toothpaste, shaving 
cream etc. and use their personal allowance to bring back moon rocks 
instead.  I would.

Perhaps one day moon rocks from the moon will be much less valuable 
than lunar meteorites found on earth.  Difference in rarity.

I for one have held back a little on purchasing a lunar specimen, 
because in the back of my mind I feel that there may be a better offer 
to come.
After the 20? or so specimens have been found in Dhofar (such a small 
region) who is to say how many more my turn up elsewhere.  The 13.5 
kilo  one from the Kalahari may be the tip of the iceberg.

Remember, not so long ago it was calculated that it was impossible to 
eject rocks from Mars without vaporizing them.  Once Martian meteorites 
were confirmed, the calculations were redone to match the reality.  
Like wise with lunar meteorites, since all finds have been very small. 
it was thought that lunar meteorites must be limited to small sizes.  
Now that we have a 13.5 kg specimen, who is to say that we may not find 
even bigger ones.  The next big one may not be retained by the finder.  
If one of that size was cut up and distributed, I'm sure the price 
would fall below Martians, or perhaps to $100 a gram.  At least then I 
could afford a 10 or 20 gram slice!

Also the US government has about 794 kg of lunar rocks from the Apollo 
missions.  Who is to say that 10 or 20 kilos might not be released to 
the market someday.  Perhaps somewhat like the hoard of Carson City 
Silver dollars that were discovered and sold to collectors in 1980.

A maxim of warfare is to ask not what is the intentions of your enemy 
but rather what are his capabilities.  NASA may have no intention of 
ever selling those moon rocks, but they are there, and it could happen.

I for one am not buying meteorites to make a quick profit, but would 
indeed feel foolish, or worse if I bought one only to find that I could 
buy the same thing the next month for only a fraction of what I paid 
then.  That happened to me once and I am older and wiser now.  I 
purchased a Park Forest slice for about $30 a gram.  You know the rest.

My various random thoughts about lunar meteorites.

Mike Fowler
Chicago