AW: [meteorite-list] 2004 MN4 updated odds

[Bernhard Rems]

Anybody ever calculated what happens if this asteroid hits land/sea?

Bernhard

-----Ursprüngliche Nachricht-----
Von: meteorite-list-bounces at meteoritecentral.com
[mailto:meteorite-list-bounces at meteoritecentral.com] Im Auftrag von Matson,
Robert
Gesendet: Montag, 27. Dezember 2004 09:33
An: 'stan . '; 'meteorite-list-bounces at meteoritecentral.com ';
'Meteorite-list at meteoritecentral.com '
Betreff: [meteorite-list] 2004 MN4 updated odds

Hi Stan and List,

Latest updated odds of impact for the 4/13/2029 encounter are
about 1 in 37 at JPL's site.  (Odds haven't been updated at
NEODyS yet -- still 1 in 45 there).  Mind you, these aren't
the true odds of impact, but rather a measure of our current
uncertainty in the orbit.  With each passing day, the orbital
arc is extended by about 1/2 of one percent, so the cloud of
possible solutions 24.3 years from now is slowly shrinking.

--Rob
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