[meteorite-list] 2004 MN4 updated odds
Matson, Robert
ROBERT.D.MATSON at saic.com
Mon Dec 27 03:33:22 EST 2004
Hi Stan and List,
Latest updated odds of impact for the 4/13/2029 encounter are
about 1 in 37 at JPL's site. (Odds haven't been updated at
NEODyS yet -- still 1 in 45 there). Mind you, these aren't
the true odds of impact, but rather a measure of our current
uncertainty in the orbit. With each passing day, the orbital
arc is extended by about 1/2 of one percent, so the cloud of
possible solutions 24.3 years from now is slowly shrinking.
--Rob
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