[meteorite-list] Fake Norway Rock

[Chris Peterson]

How am I gullible? From the very beginning I said this was probably not 
a meteorite. That's still what I say, but now I'm even more confident, 
given that people familiar with skydiving have provided a reasonable 
scenario for how a rock could be packed with a parachute. I still accept 
the possibility of a meteorite for the simple reason that nobody 
familiar with videography, meteoritics, or the physics of bodies falling 
in the atmosphere has provided any evidence against that hypothesis.

Here's the reality: at this point, we have no certain answer. We have at 
least three hypotheses: (1) a meteorite in dark flight; (2) a rock 
accidentally packed with a parachute; (3) a deliberate hoax. While some 
people might like #3, I see nothing in the demeanor of any of those 
involved to suggest any such thing, and certainly their ready 
willingness to accept a prosaic solution argues against a hoax. That 
leaves #1 and #2. The physical evidence is equally good for either. So 
the best we can do is ask which is more probable, and that is #2 by a 
large margin. So a reasonable person will accept that as being the 
likely explanation. But sometimes, the most likely explanation turns out 
to be wrong. So only a fool would entirely dismiss #1 given the evidence 
currently available.

I can't help but notice that the people on this list who are trained, 
professional scientists are the ones who understand this critical 
distinction between possible and probable; who understand the difference 
between disproving an theory and simply finding a much better one. 
Frankly, I think we're the ones with the best tuned BS filters.

Chris

*******************************
Chris L Peterson
Cloudbait Observatory
http://www.cloudbait.com

On 4/10/2014 12:41 PM, Joshua Tree Earth & Space Museum wrote:
> Chris,
>
> You need to install and tune up a bullshit detector. You seem awfully
> gullible. Plausibly explained by the meteorite hypothesis? Maybe to a
> moron.
>
>
> Phil Whitmer