[meteorite-list] Russia mega meteor and asteroid 2012DA14 related, yes I think so...

[Chris Peterson]

It takes a large amount of energy to split a massive body into 
components with radically different orbits (and that these bodies have 
radically different orbits is known beyond reasonable doubt). That 
energy could be supplied explosively, as when a pair of bodies collide. 
But that amount of energy would create a lot of debris, which has not 
been observed. It is also statistically unlikely for it to occur very 
close to the Earth (as it would have to). Indeed, that is statistically 
much less likely than the simple passage of two bodies close to the 
Earth within a few hours of each other.

The other mechanism for creating different orbits is the actual one that 
describes much of what we see in terms of minor bodies in the Solar 
System, which is gravitational perturbation. What frequently goes 
unappreciated, however, is that three bodies are required. These are 
most often the asteroid/comet, Jupiter, and the Sun, but certainly other 
bodies are occasionally involved. The only potential body that could set 
up these different orbits so shortly before impact would be the Moon. 
But I don't believe that DA14 passed closely enough to the Moon to allow 
a tidal separation of asteroid components followed by the complex sort 
of "slingshot" effect that would be required to so dramatically change 
the inclination and velocity of the smaller component. Remember, DA14 
has been under observation for a year.

So that's what I mean when I say that there seems to be no reasonable or 
likely scenario that could explain these bodies being related. But the 
odds of two such bodies being where they were at that time are not 
particularly long at all.

Chris

*******************************
Chris L Peterson
Cloudbait Observatory
http://www.cloudbait.com

On 2/16/2013 1:32 PM, Michael Bross wrote:
> Ok... lets see.
> because all the first part of your email
> makes me "reasonably" think like you...
> but then I read the end...
>
> Quote:
> "There is no reasonable or likely mechanism for a body to split and
> produce products with radically different orbits."
>
> How sure are you about this... ?
> Especially the "reasonable and likely mechanism" part....
> As I said before.
>
> Anyway, sorry if I disturb the list but this doesn't sound like an evidence
> to me
>
> Michael