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[Matson, Robert D.]

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Hi All,

Frank and others have expressed interest in potential reentry locations
for UARS later today. Here are my calculations of land possibilities
from
23 September 20:00 UT to 24 September 00:00 UT  (1pm-5pm PDT,
4pm-8pm EDT) and the estimated altitude at the time of each country
overflight:

September 23, 2011

20:05-20:06 Papua/New Guinea 158 km
20:16 New Zealand 169 km
20:38-20:48 Chile/Argentina/Bolivia/Brazil  152 km
21:04 Southern England  159 km
21:06 Denmark  160 km
21:07 Southernmost Sweden 160 km
21:08-21:17 Russia 159 km
21:17-21:25 China 156 km
21:25-21:28 Vietnam 155 km
21:30-21:34 Malaysia/Indonesia  155 km
21:36-21:43 Australia 159-166 km
21:44 Tasmania 167 km
22:12-22:15 Peru  151 km
22:15-22:17 Colombia  150 km
22:17-22:18  Venezuela  150 km
22:35  Scotland  159 km
22:38 Sweden  159 km
22:39-22:48 Russia  159-156 km
22:48-22:49 Afghanistan 155 km
22:49-22:50 Pakistan 155 km
22:50-22:54 India  154 km
23:08-23:09 Southwest tip of Australia  162 km
23:47 Honduras  148 km
23:49 Cuba  149 km
23:50 Bahamas 149 km
23:58 Eastern Newfoundland 154 km

In my opinion, reentry is unlikely during this 4-hour stretch, but I
wanted to get it out there in case the orbital decay rate suddenly
accelerates in the next few hours. I will post predictions for the
more-likely 0:00 UT - 4:00 UT window a little later using the
freshest orbital elements I can get.

Due to the earth's oblateness and UARS' very circular orbit,
reentry is more likely to occur at lower latitudes (30 south to
30 north) than elsewhere.  -Rob

From: imca-bounces at imcamail.de [mailto:imca-bounces at imcamail.de] On
Behalf Of Frank Meteorites
Sent: Friday, September 23, 2011 8:37 AM
To: imca at imcamail.de
Subject: [IMCA] UARS Re-Entry unsure when

Hello dearest IMCA Members
 
I am searching and considering all possible sources available worldwide
to kinda make out, if it would be an effort to stay awake for some hours
getting an opportunity to watch a possible NASA's UARS re-entry to
earth's atmosphere.
I would be very eager - if not possible to watch it with my own eyes -
even to pursue it's last travel in the internet.
 
Does anybody have a clue of a reliable source in the internet to see
it's momentary heighth and ground track?
I have considered nasa's official site, space weather, heavens above.
But no satisfying source could tell, what's happing in real time.
I cannot believe this. I'm sure there are hundreds of employees sitting
in front of some screens observing the doomed satellite.
 
Kindest regards from Switzerland
#5002
Frank Holler (...not only collecting meteorites)