[meteorite-list] Alien Contact Predicted

[Phil Whitmer]

The Drake Equation is a prime example of mental masuturbation. It proves 
absolutely nothing. How can an equation prove anything when none of the 
variables are known with any certainity? As Rob points out, one zero 
nullifies the whole silly thing.   How about Ne; the number of known Earth 
like planets supporting life=0.  If you want dumb equations, the 
creationists have a bunch of them that proves there is exactly one planet 
that supports life.  I can make up an equation that proves the existence of 
mermaids, bigfoot, Nessie, unicorns, dragons, what imaginary being do you 
want to believe in? I'll write a formula to prove it's existence. I'll be 
easy, because I already know that life begets life. The Drake Equation 
misses the key concept in the alien debate; mainly how does abiogenesis 
occur? How does non living matter become alive? Once we figure out the 
mechanics of this most basic problem, then we can extrapolate about whether 
this seemingly miraculous event could happen more than once. If you're going 
to believe in spontaneous generation on other planets, you had better 
understand how it happened here first. Someone has to explain to me how 
those left handed isomer amino acids from meteorites organized themselves 
into living, self replicating DNA. (See this thread is related to 
meteorites!)

Crichton summed it up best at a lecture at Caltech :
The problem, of course, is that none of the terms can be known, and most 
cannot even be estimated. The only way to work the equation is to fill in 
with guesses. [...] As a result, the Drake equation can have any value from 
"billions and billions" to zero. An expression that can mean anything means 
nothing. Speaking precisely, the Drake equation is literally meaningless...

And puhleez, don't give me that stupid absence of evidence argument, it 
didn't hold water when Rumsfeld used it for imaginary WMDs, and it doesn't 
justify the belief in phantasmagorical alien creatures.

Mental masturbation is fun, but don't confuse it with real science!

>From the Urban Dictionary:

Mental masturbation:

1. The act of engaging in useless yet intellectually stimulating 
conversation, usually as an excuse to avoid taking constructive action in 
your life.

2. The act of engaging in intelligent and interesting conversation purely 
for the enjoyment of your own greatness and individuality. Subjects range 
from obscure lp's to cultural movements in preindustrial societies. Either 
delivered through grand monlogues or subtle conversation orientation, it 
links large words and random references resulting in nothing acually being 
communicated.

3. Overly intensive self gratifying procrastination, thought and 
contemplation for a subject not necessarily warranting such effort.


4.  The pretense of superior knowledge or intelligence by claiming 
conjecture, theory, feeling or opinion as fact.

5. The act of engaging in impractical/nonproductive mental exercise / 
thinkings / writings / etc., through which a practitioner only comforts 
oneself mentally. Such acts don't lead to any constructive results what so 
ever in the real world; some might even imagine oneself being transformed 
into superman, or simply the opposite sex, etc.
In short, it's just bs/crap.

Phil Whitmer