[meteorite-list] Steve Arnold's Famous Reverse Auction

[MeteorHntr at aol.com]

Doug,

You said:

Sometimes you really can get good  deals.  But, theoretically, if only 
one item is for sale, the expected  revenue from the sale is identical 
to an auction as long as you have full  participation.  If I had to 
guess, I'd say the payback to you will be  lower than a normal auction, 
mainly because you will lose some participation  by varying the standard 
format (lose some people, though you hope the  opposite by varying), and 
also because you are limiting the upside  (sometimes to seller's 
delights).

*********
I agree, the payback  probably is a bit lower than with a normal auctions, 
people can  procrastinate to the very end before they decide if they even want 
to make a  bid.  With multiple reductions, some people will just miss out on 
chances  to bid at a higher price.  Some may show up a day late and pay a lower  
price when they would have been happy to pay the higher price the day before 
had  they showed up.

********

If the payout for the Seller is  equivalent - What do you think makes an 
auction (eBay proxy style) so  popular for buyers, IMO it's the foreplay 
where everyone can interact to  raise the bid and has the equality, a 
vicarious scent of "winning" on a  level field against the needs of 
museums, scientists, collectors, etc.,  while their bid is the highest - 
and that maybe others won't pay attention -  which can happen.  Once 
people start participating it's like rolling  vs. static friction, and 
things can heat up.  This is why jump bidding  is so contentious: does 
it start the roll (yes), but does it stop the  rolling (?) ...

******
I agree, but if I have say 40 items up for  sale, going down in price, say 
daily, there is action happening all along,  rather than the waiting until the 
last 30 seconds.

*****

To  reproduce such a feeling and give us a truly revolutionary auction, 
let me  suggest the following simplier and perilous scheme:

Steve's revised  oriented liquidation 'auction':
1. Announce the start time well in  advance.
2. Put everything up as buy-it-now, the starting highest price you  have 
in mind.
3. E.g., all 10 day auctions for simplicity.
4. Make the  discount equal to the percent of total auction time elapsed.

for example,  starting price: $100 dollars
purchased on day 6 of the auction: 6/10 = 60%  discount, buyer pays $40.

****
That is very close to what I did in the  past and was planning on doing this 
time.   In the past I enjoyed,  being haphazard in my frequency on the 
lowering of the prices.  Also, often  with a list of 100 items or so selling, it took 
time to go in and manually  change the new price for each on the email, then 
send it all out.  In  a given weeks time or so, there were times I was just 
busier than others.   Plus, it kept the buyers on their toes.
 
I like how you think Doug!


*****

This is the concept you  are after - with no fluff added (no fluff is 
another reason online auctions  can beat out one-on-one transactions, 
for those unwilling to deal with the  quirks of the other party leading 
up to exchanging the piece.

The  excitement would be generated because the seller puts the material 
on the  line at risk and it is transparent.  Just like a $0.01 normal 
start  price can be a loss to a seller the normal way, if no one notices 
the  auction running down you create what is scientifically known as 
"sniper's  dilemma" ;).In snipe mode - when to snipe becomes the 
question ... The big  difference here is that the seller should have no 
control to pull the item -  no early canceling of auctions!

COOL !!

****

In the past,  if a price got too low for me, I would just stop lowering the 
price on that  particular lot, and keep lowering the others.  Basically, it 
would be my  "Reverse Reserve price."  I wouldn't need to cancel it, just slow 
down  and/or stop lowering the price.  
 
On the other hand, the threat of the price bouncing back up to the full  
price would add a bit of a twist to it.  Kind of a game of Ebay Chicken,  who 
blinks first?
 
Another down point, is that some people don't even look at lots on ebay  
unless they are ending in the next 24 hours.  Everyone here on the list  would 
know with an announcement at the start, but some 10 day auctions might end  
quickly, without a lot of potential buyers even seeing them.  For those "in  the 
know" and paying attention, they could get things without as much  competition.  
Good for the prudent bidder, not as good for  me.  But then again, who are we 
here to please, me or the  customers???

Looks like I have some work to do here to make this  "gimmick" work.

Steve #1
 



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