[meteorite-list] NASA Statement on Student Asteroid Calculations

[Ron Baalke]

April 16, 2008

Dwayne Brown
Headquarters, Washington
202-358-1726
dwayne.c.brown at nasa.gov

RELEASE: 08-103

NASA STATEMENT ON STUDENT ASTEROID CALCULATIONS

WASHINGTON -- The Near-Earth Object Program Office at NASA's Jet 
Propulsion Laboratory in Pasadena, Calif., has not changed its 
current estimates for the very low probability (1 in 45,000) of an 
Earth impact by the asteroid Apophis in 2036.

Contrary to recent press reports, NASA offices involved in near-Earth 
object research were not contacted and have had no correspondence 
with a young German student, who claims the Apophis impact 
probability is far higher than the current estimate.

This student's conclusion reportedly is based on the possibility of a 
collision with an artificial satellite during the asteroid's close 
approach in April 2029. However, the asteroid will not pass near the 
main belt of geosynchronous satellites in 2029, and the chance of a 
collision with a satellite is exceedingly remote. 

Therefore, consideration of this satellite collision scenario does not 
affect the current impact probability estimate for Apophis, which 
remains at 1 in 45,000.

	
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