[meteorite-list] re: Mystery Surrounds Green Meteor in Australia

[Marco Langbroek]

 >> 2002-037B (#28763) is still in orbit.
 >
 > Are you sure? If so, then their reentry forecast
 > is off by a number of days.
 > I didn't see a new date listed for its reentry.
 >
 > Ron B.

Yes I am sure :-) orbits are available from yesterday and this very morning.

(And I made a typoe, it is 2002-037BJ)

My own estimate would be that it decays somewhere tomorrow afternoon. And it is 
very small (RCS 0.06 square meter), so of little concern, which is probably why 
they don't bother to give out an updated decay warning. It will result in an 
inconspicuous meteor at best, if anything.

And with all this I already said much more than I am strictly allowed to. So I'd 
better shut up now.

The prediction you refer to was probably made a month or more in advance (I 
noted it indeed appears for May 15th in the 60-day forecast). It is by no means 
unusual that the actual decay date then differs by several days from the true 
date. The rate of decay is heavily dependant on solar activity.

- Marco

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Dr Marco Langbroek
Dutch Meteor Society (DMS)

e-mail: meteorites at dmsweb.org
private website http://home.wanadoo.nl/marco.langbroek
DMS website http://www.dmsweb.org
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