[meteorite-list] RE: Meteorite sales doing just fine!

[Walter Branch]

You are correct, Rob, for the reasons you listed.
One sale doesn't a trend make.

Besides, if one compares the closing prices of ebay auctions with the 
sellers stated estimates of their worth, it appears that the trend is 
negative.

-Walter Branch
________________________
----- Original Message ----- 
From: "Matson, Robert" <ROBERT.D.MATSON at saic.com>
To: <Meteorite-list at meteoritecentral.com>
Sent: Wednesday, April 12, 2006 3:39 PM
Subject: [meteorite-list] RE: Meteorite sales doing just fine!


> Mike reports:
>
> http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20060412/ap_on_sc/meteorite_auction
>
>> Looks like the meteorite market is booming to me!
>
> I get the feeling that if you took a poll of the list members
> here, most would argue that the meteorite market has been at best
> flat the last five years (and I would opine that it is actually
> down rather than flat).  The combination of exquisite specimens,
> high-profile advertising, and Bonhams' well-healed bidders
> predictably leads to slightly inflated prices.  Such an auction
> is not a reliable indicator of "general public" meteorite commerce.
>
> Compare meteorite prices with those of precious metals, oil,
> or even the S&P 500 over the last five years.  Space rocks were
> hardly a good investment.  New collectors waiting until today
> to acquire their first meteorite have a lot more buying power --
> and a greater variety of specimens from which to choose -- than
> they would have in 2001.
>
> The only thing that will drive meteorite prices up at this point
> is greater demand.  We don't have a meteorite-equivalent of
> De Beers stock-piling meteorites and reducing the supply.  Supply
> increases every year; in fact the *rate* of supply increase has
> itself been increasing over the last decade:
>
> Bull #  Ant.  Other  Tot.
> ------  ----  -----  ----
> MB 80:    42   136    178
> MB 81:    20   161    181
> MB 82:   521   453    974
> MB 83:   473   425    898
> MB 84:   842   498   1340  (NWA series begins:  NWA 001-032)
> MB 85:   658   718   1376
> MB 86:   661   493   1154
> MB 87:  1048   850   1898
> MB 88:   753   857   1610
> MB 89:  1010   758   1768
>
> 3-year moving averages for total new meteorites (smoothes out
> volatile Antarctic component):
>
> 1997:  444.3
> 1998:  684.3
> 1999: 1070.7
> 2000: 1204.7
> 2001: 1290.0
> 2002: 1476.0
> 2003: 1554.0
> 2004: 1758.7
>
> Will MB 90 (2006) be the first year that shows a decline in
> the 3-year moving average?  Depends a lot on the Antarctic
> totals in the upcoming Bulletin.
>
> --Rob
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