[meteorite-list] RE: Meteorite sales doing just fine!

[Matson, Robert]

Mike reports:

http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20060412/ap_on_sc/meteorite_auction

> Looks like the meteorite market is booming to me!

I get the feeling that if you took a poll of the list members
here, most would argue that the meteorite market has been at best
flat the last five years (and I would opine that it is actually
down rather than flat).  The combination of exquisite specimens,
high-profile advertising, and Bonhams' well-healed bidders
predictably leads to slightly inflated prices.  Such an auction
is not a reliable indicator of "general public" meteorite commerce.

Compare meteorite prices with those of precious metals, oil,
or even the S&P 500 over the last five years.  Space rocks were
hardly a good investment.  New collectors waiting until today
to acquire their first meteorite have a lot more buying power --
and a greater variety of specimens from which to choose -- than
they would have in 2001.

The only thing that will drive meteorite prices up at this point
is greater demand.  We don't have a meteorite-equivalent of
De Beers stock-piling meteorites and reducing the supply.  Supply
increases every year; in fact the *rate* of supply increase has
itself been increasing over the last decade:

Bull #  Ant.  Other  Tot.
------  ----  -----  ----
MB 80:    42   136    178
MB 81:    20   161    181
MB 82:   521   453    974
MB 83:   473   425    898
MB 84:   842   498   1340  (NWA series begins:  NWA 001-032)
MB 85:   658   718   1376
MB 86:   661   493   1154
MB 87:  1048   850   1898 
MB 88:   753   857   1610
MB 89:  1010   758   1768

3-year moving averages for total new meteorites (smoothes out
volatile Antarctic component):

1997:  444.3
1998:  684.3
1999: 1070.7
2000: 1204.7
2001: 1290.0
2002: 1476.0
2003: 1554.0
2004: 1758.7

Will MB 90 (2006) be the first year that shows a decline in
the 3-year moving average?  Depends a lot on the Antarctic
totals in the upcoming Bulletin.

--Rob