[meteorite-list] OT: Death fears vs. probability My un-expertopinion

[Pete Pete]

"The death of one man is a tragedy. The death of millions is a statistic."
Joseph Stalin

--the sad reality of human apathy at perhaps inappropriate times.

This discussion has become quite moot.
We all feel and experience these events in our own personal way, and there 
is no right or wrong.

Chondrules are f'n cool under a microscope, eh?!

Pete




From: MexicoDoug at aol.com
To: mam602 at cox.net, ROBERT.D.MATSON at saic.com, 
kelly at bhil.com,meteorite-list at meteoritecentral.com
Subject: Re: [meteorite-list] OT: Death fears vs. probability My 
un-expertopinion
Date: Sat, 3 Sep 2005 12:47:34 EDT

Rob and Sterling discussed:
 >When 2000 people die from a  hurricane-caused flood, that's news.
 >But 42,000+ people dying in  automobile accidents ANNUALLY in
 >the U.S. alone?  No one  cares.

No one cares?  If a drunk driver was the cause they will find out  quickly
that someone cares.  And there is reason for that:

I totally  disagree with this spin from my most respected friends regarding
these good  points.  If you live in a hurricane prone area the USA 
statistics
mean  nothing and proactivity everything(why not use 6.x billionin the world 
it
is  just as meaningless), if you have filthy sanitation USA death from
microbes'  statistics mean nothing, if you like surfboarding in shark 
infested
waters  (where great waves are), they mean nothing, if you live in tornado 
alley,
etc.  statistics, and if you skydive frequently, why would USA statistics 
mean
anything.

While I agree that society as a whole has a terrible grasp of  statistics,
and they appear sometimes just branch of politics, there are two  important
thoughts missing from these cold statistical arguments:

One is  the the fear of loss of control over one's destiny and
self-determination.   If I accept the statical bet to drive with its risks, 
I have
determined my  destiny, and if I am fatigued but drive anyway, the 
statistics are
usless as I  find myself drifting in front of opposing trucks or off the 
road, and
no one  will question that it is my fault if something happens.  Statistics
may be  interesting for the Federal Bureau of Statistics (Federal BS) in 
this
case - but  luckily one has not yet become a statistic for the morbidity 
bean
counters while  one is alive.

The other related objection I have is the thought that  people are too
ignorant to guage situations of bonafide danger when they are  knowingly in 
harm's
way.  The "being hit on the head by a meteorite  arriving from space" is
basically a cold statistic on Earth, but it has new  meaning if you are an 
astronaut
floating around in the space station.   Living on Miami Beach or N Orleans 
is
like during hurricane Season.  Or  when I am caught in the middle of an
electrical storm on treeless plains with an  iron in the pocket and no where 
to
hide.  Maybe I should raise a lightning  rod connected to the iron in my 
soaked
backpack and laugh in defiance at God's  act quoting Him USA statistics?

When expectations are mismanaged  statistics are a very lame and misguided
defense or consolation.  This  isn't a political comment about poor 
leadership
and bureaucracy any more than  condoning the barbaric nature of some natives 
in
the New Orleans area who  clearly (were driven to?) lack the spirit that
"founded America".  I hope  the current Gulf coast crisis is contained and a
proactive attitude arises from  the fading chaos.  There is probably a 
handful of
people out there right  now praying with all there hearts not to become 
fodder
for a statistical quotes,  thought their chances are 50/50 in their mind - 
and
they may be overly  optimistic.

The expectation management and self-determination factor need  to be
considered.  Terrorism is a perfect example.  Statistically we  can forget 
about it.
Tell that to the Meteoritehunter dining in Nakhla  Cafe when a boom is
suddenly heard.  Oh, only 500 people have meteorites  that have rusted.  So, 
if you
are a resident of the USA, don't worry about  having a meteorite rusting - 
it
is statistically insignificant that it will  happen to you.  And especially
don't worry about it if the seller gave you  the expectation that it won't 
rust.
Those are even fewer cases and  statistically not even measurable in the
context of the USA population to 5  sigma...

Saludos, Doug

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