[meteorite-list] OT: Death fears vs. probability My un-expert opinion

[MexicoDoug at aol.com]

Rob and Sterling discussed:
>When 2000 people die from a  hurricane-caused flood, that's news.
>But 42,000+ people dying in  automobile accidents ANNUALLY in
>the U.S. alone?  No one  cares.  

No one cares?  If a drunk driver was the cause they will find out  quickly 
that someone cares.  And there is reason for that:

I totally  disagree with this spin from my most respected friends regarding 
these good  points.  If you live in a hurricane prone area the USA statistics 
mean  nothing and proactivity everything(why not use 6.x billionin the world it 
is  just as meaningless), if you have filthy sanitation USA death from 
microbes'  statistics mean nothing, if you like surfboarding in shark infested 
waters  (where great waves are), they mean nothing, if you live in tornado alley, 
etc.  statistics, and if you skydive frequently, why would USA statistics mean  
anything.

While I agree that society as a whole has a terrible grasp of  statistics, 
and they appear sometimes just branch of politics, there are two  important 
thoughts missing from these cold statistical arguments:

One is  the the fear of loss of control over one's destiny and 
self-determination.   If I accept the statical bet to drive with its risks, I have 
determined my  destiny, and if I am fatigued but drive anyway, the statistics are 
usless as I  find myself drifting in front of opposing trucks or off the road, and 
no one  will question that it is my fault if something happens.  Statistics 
may be  interesting for the Federal Bureau of Statistics (Federal BS) in this 
case - but  luckily one has not yet become a statistic for the morbidity bean 
counters while  one is alive. 

The other related objection I have is the thought that  people are too 
ignorant to guage situations of bonafide danger when they are  knowingly in harm's 
way.  The "being hit on the head by a meteorite  arriving from space" is 
basically a cold statistic on Earth, but it has new  meaning if you are an astronaut 
floating around in the space station.   Living on Miami Beach or N Orleans is 
like during hurricane Season.  Or  when I am caught in the middle of an 
electrical storm on treeless plains with an  iron in the pocket and no where to 
hide.  Maybe I should raise a lightning  rod connected to the iron in my soaked 
backpack and laugh in defiance at God's  act quoting Him USA statistics? 

When expectations are mismanaged  statistics are a very lame and misguided 
defense or consolation.  This  isn't a political comment about poor leadership 
and bureaucracy any more than  condoning the barbaric nature of some natives in 
the New Orleans area who  clearly (were driven to?) lack the spirit that 
"founded America".  I hope  the current Gulf coast crisis is contained and a 
proactive attitude arises from  the fading chaos.  There is probably a handful of 
people out there right  now praying with all there hearts not to become fodder 
for a statistical quotes,  thought their chances are 50/50 in their mind - and 
they may be overly  optimistic.

The expectation management and self-determination factor need  to be 
considered.  Terrorism is a perfect example.  Statistically we  can forget about it.  
Tell that to the Meteoritehunter dining in Nakhla  Cafe when a boom is 
suddenly heard.  Oh, only 500 people have meteorites  that have rusted.  So, if you 
are a resident of the USA, don't worry about  having a meteorite rusting - it 
is statistically insignificant that it will  happen to you.  And especially 
don't worry about it if the seller gave you  the expectation that it won't rust.  
Those are even fewer cases and  statistically not even measurable in the 
context of the USA population to 5  sigma...

Saludos, Doug