[meteorite-list] OT: Death fears vs. probability

[Matson, Robert]

Sterling makes some excellent points about the psychological
impact of tragic deaths attributed to various flavors of
Mother Nature flexing her muscles.  When it comes to fear and
risk, humans can be very irrational.  They worry about tornadoes,
hurricanes, volcanoes, supervolcanoes, tsunamis, global warming,
airplane crashes, lightning, shark attacks and bear attacks, not
to mention whatever the latest fear of the week might be (e.g.
anthrax, dirty bombs, West Nile virus, Ebola).

The common factor in all of these fears is that the probability
of dying from any one of them is practically zero.  In fact, if
you add up all the probabilities of dying from each of these, the
chances are still next to zero.  But this is what people worry
about because it's reported each and every day on their TV sets.
They think nothing of getting in their cars each day and driving
to and from work (perhaps smoking a cigarette or wolfing down a
supersize meal from their favorite fast-food joint as they do so.)
When 2000 people die from a hurricane-caused flood, that's news.
But 42,000+ people dying in automobile accidents ANNUALLY in
the U.S. alone?  No one cares.  No one is suggesting that we ban
automobiles.  But if there were 42,000 deaths a year from shark
attacks, it would be a different story.

Here's a list of some selected average annual deaths for the
U.S.:

Shark Attack                    1
Roller Skates                  10
Dog Bites                      20
Avalanche                   20-25
Mud/Landslide               25-50
Skydiving                      30
Skiing                         34
Hurricane (1940-1981 avg.)     47
Bee/wasp stings                50
Personal Watercraft            54
Lightning '95                  89
Chickenpox                     90
Needle Sticks                 100
Fire Ants                     100
Flood 40-81                   109
Tornado 40-81                 128
Police Officers 2000          151
Lightning 1940-1981           188
Airline                       200
Car Deer Collisions           211
Campylobacter(chicken)   200-1000
IllImm Mex-US Border '97      300
Childbirth                    302
CJD brain disease         300-400
Heat related illness          318 Newsweek 8/13/01
Struck by trains 1999         530
CO Poisoning                  594
General Aviation              600
Recreational Boating 1996     714
Bicycle 1995                  800
Water borne disease         1,200
CO Poisoning                1,500
Rec Boating 1973            1,754
Motorcycle                  2,500
Car Phone 2002 Harvard      2,500
Subcompact cars NHTSA     2-3,000
EPA Second Hand Smoke       3,000
Fire                        4,500
Drowning                    4,621
Teen car accidents          5,500
Pedestrian accidents        6,000
Occupational Injuries       6,200
Adverse Drug Reactions      7,000
Food Illness                9,000
Skin Cancers                9,733
Bladder Cancer             11,700
Falls                      12,662
Shooting Murder            15,456
Diet related Cancer        16,000
Alcohol Driving            17,126
Influenza                  20,000
AIDS                       20,000
Radon (EPA high)           20,000
Leukemia                   21,000
Suicide 1994               31,142
Prostate Cancer            40,000
Breast Cancer              44,560
Motor Vehicle              50,000
Leukemia & Related         56,000
Colon Cancer               60,000
Medical Mistakes           98,000
Alcohol Related           100,000
Adverse Drug Reactions    106,000 JAMA '98
Trauma                    125,000
Medical Negligence est    150,000
Lung Cancer               158,700
Diabetes related          169,000
Influenza/pneumonia       200,000
Obesity                   300,000
Tobacco related           500,000
Cancer                    500,000
Diseases of heart         733,834