[meteorite-list] Reentry Survivability Analysis of the Hubble Space Telescope (HST)

[Ron Baalke]

ORBITAL DEBRIS QUARTERLY NEWS, Volume 9 Issue 2, April 2005, 
NASA Orbital Debris Program Office, Johnson Space Center

Reentry Survivability Analysis of the Hubble Space Telescope (HST)

R. SMITH, K. BLEDSOE, J. DOBARCO-OTERO, W. ROCHELLE, N. JOHNSON, A. 
PERGOSKY, & M. WEISS

An analysis of reentry survivability and population risk of the Hubble 
Space Telescope (HST) entering from orbital decay was performed using the 
Object Reentry Survival Analysis Tool (ORSAT). The objective was to 
investigate the reentry, breakup, demise, and ground impact of all objects 
with known properties.

The analysis assumed an uncontrolled reentry from an altitude of 122 km to 
a breakup altitude of 78 km. Over 600 different objects from the satellite 
were modeled, comprising 75% of the entire spacecraft mass.

A total of 2055 kg of mass is predicted by the analysis to survive reentry 
and produce an effective debris casualty area of 146 m2. The resulting 
calculated risk is 1:250, corresponding to a reentry in the year 2021. The 
risk has been scaled to account for the unmodeled mass.